На деривативной бирже FTX трейдеры оценивают, что шансы у Дональда Трампа выиграть на выборах США не больше 15%. Ситуация кардинально изменилась за шесть часов. Цена фьючерса TRUMP упала на фоне новостей о том, что оппонент действующего президента Джо Байден побеждает в колеблющихся штатах Мичиган и Висконсин.
В день выборов трейдеры делали ставку на быструю победу Байдена и оценивали его выигрыш в 64%.
Updated odds and open interest for crypto-related markets that are betting on the election. Total open interest on decentralized prediction markets is still below $5 million. Odds are relatively in line with centralized exchanges and bookmakers pic.twitter.com/ho0O1TVCsA
— Larry Cermak (@lawmaster) November 3, 2020
Но успехи Трампа во Флориде и Техасе заставили их на время поменять свое мнение.
Brutal chart for Trump pic.twitter.com/G0atGLpZFO
— Frank Chaparro (@fintechfrank) November 4, 2020
Если вы хотите отслеживать движение цены — смотрите здесь. Объем суточных торгов фьючерсами на исход выборов на FTX уже превышает $30 млн.
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